Record Cold For Florida This Weekend?
Florida, are you going to be okay?
If you have seen the latest model guidance both the ECMF (Euro) and GFS (American) models are showing some cold weather working across the state of Florida this weekend due to a strong cold front with the coldest temperatures are forecast to be on Sunday morning. Below you will see two snapshots from the 00Z GFS [image #1] and 00Z ECMF [image #2] for 7 AM ET on Sunday.
Taking a look at the latest model data, the GFS has trended slightly warmer the last couple of runs compared to the ECMF model. This leads to a low confidence in this forecast at this time with a model spread between the two models about an 8-10F difference for parts of the state. It is also interesting to note that the coldest temperatures aren’t necessarily forecast along the coastline, looking at the ECMF, since the warmer waters of the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean will keep these regions a little warmer. As you work further inland and farther away from the bodies of water, one can see that is where we are expecting to see these cooler temperatures.
Record-Breaking Cold?
Taking a look at climate data across various parts of the state from the Florida Climate Center, it appears a few areas could come close to possibly tying and maybe even breaking some cold records for Sunday, January 30th especially across Central and Southern parts of Florida. Like I had previously mentioned, the coastal regions will get cold, but I think the water will manage to keep them just warm enough that they could avoid some record-breaking temperatures.
LaBelle, Florida for example, has a record low of 27F set back in 1931 on January 30th. The forecast low according to the latest model guidance is around 29-31F. Not a record, but very close! Immokalee, Florida - about a half-hour south of LaBelle, Florida - is forecast to reach a low around 30-33F, with the record being 31F for January 30th set back in 1978. Okeechobee, Florida looks like it could break the old record of 34F set back in 1967 with a projected low Sunday morning of 28-31F.
How about those wind chills?
No matter the model, for the state of Florida, the wind chills all across the state look to be downright frigid! The following two images are the projected wind chills for 7 AM ET according to the 00Z GFS and the 00Z ECMF. The GFS again is warmer than the Euro model, but temperatures across the state are projected to be in the mid-30s to low 40s across the Central to Southern parts of the state and the upper teens and low 20s across the northern parts of the state.
