Twin Cities Severe Threat for Sunday, July 10th
Strong to severe storms will be possible across the Twin Cities region on Sunday as an increase in warm, moist air will work back across the region. Models are struggling a little bit with the timing of the frontal passage, which will play a big role in how strong these storms could be when they work across the region. There could be a lingering through for severe that also lingers across parts of the region into Monday, but there again remains a high amount of uncertainty about how Sunday’s events could impact the threat the following day.
Sunday, July 10, 2022 Timing and Severe Threat
An area of high pressure currently sits to the north over south-central Canada that will be pushed off to the southeast by the incoming trough from the west-northwest. As this high-pressure shifts southwest, the clockwise flow around the high pressure will help to usher warm, moist air northward across the region. This will further be enhanced when an area of low pressure develops over Montana-Dakotas on Saturday. This increase in warm, moist air will help to increase the instability needed to fuel the threat of strong to severe storms on Sunday.
While there is still some disagreement between the different model guidance on the exact timing, the latest thinking is strong to severe storms will develop earlier in the day on Sunday across the Dakotas and then advance eastward towards Minnesota into the late morning/early afternoon. As a warm front advances northward during the late morning to early afternoon a few isolated to scattered showers and storms could be possible along that front with the potential for large hail and isolated damaging winds. The chances of this are low right now, but there is a chance this could occur.
Additional storms will develop along and ahead of the cold front that will then advance across the region late Sunday into early Monday. It appears, at this time, the greatest instability will stretch from the eastern Dakotas to central Minnesota during the early to late afternoon as the front works across this region. This means, the greatest threat of severe weather will occur west of the Metro, but could then work into the region late in the evening. Due to the uncertainty though, this axis of greatest severe could shift or expand eastward with later model runs leading up to Sunday, so the latest updates will need to be monitored over the coming days.
We will continue to monitor the threat of strong to severe weather over the coming days. Be sure to have a plan in place in case severe weather does develop, and remember to be weather aware!
