Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather in East Texas: Dallas, Fort Worth and Arlington on Alert
Written by: Candyse Arivett
Today, the eastern Texas region, particularly areas encompassing Dallas, Fort Worth, and Arlington, face an increased risk of severe weather. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation as a modestly organized but broad Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) moves across Oklahoma, accompanied by peripheral outflow affecting the Red River vicinity. While this system is not overly organized, there remains a possibility of a few stronger or locally severe storms across southern and eastern Oklahoma towards the ArkLaTex region during the early part of the day. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, the MCS may rejuvenate, leading to potential severe hail and damaging winds as it progresses east-southeastward towards the ArkLaMiss.
Later in the afternoon, attention turns to far southern Oklahoma and north/central Texas, where more intense and initially isolated storm development is expected. This will occur near the modifying outflow from the earlier part of the day and in proximity to the surface trough and dryline across Texas. The evolution of this scenario will also be influenced by an eastward-moving mid-level wave, which will result in some mid-level cooling and strengthening mid-level winds.
Within the aforementioned corridor, conditions are conducive for strong buoyancy and 30-40 kt effective shear, creating an environment favorable for the development of intense supercells. These storms have the potential to produce very large hail, and despite modest 0-1 km shear/SRH, there is a possibility of tornadoes. As time progresses, the storms are likely to cluster, forming one or more forward propagating clusters across central and east Texas by early evening. Damaging wind potential may increase as a result, accompanied by the potential for wind-driven hail.
Moving to the Central Plains, an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is anticipated during the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms are expected near a south/southeastward-moving cold front and within a post-frontal regime in the vicinity of the Front Range and adjacent High Plains. While the flow aloft will remain relatively modest, a few stronger storms may produce severe hail and severe-caliber wind gusts on an isolated basis as storms generally move east-southeastward across the region.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay updated on the latest weather information and heed any warnings or advisories issued by local authorities. It is crucial to remain vigilant and prepared for potential severe weather conditions. Stay safe, stay informed, and take necessary precautions to protect life and property.
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