Twin Cities Severe Weather Threat Wednesday and Thursday - May 11-12th
1 AM UPDATE - May 11, 2022: I have updated the article to include the latest Day 1 and Day 2 severe outlooks, along with update some of the timing with the latest model data.
Over the next couple of days, we will have a few chances for showers and storms, some of which have the potential to be strong to severe across the Twin Cities metro. Above you will see the Day 1 and Day 2 Severe Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for the threat of severe weather on May 11th and May 12th. The latest outlooks show a Slight chance (2 out of 5) for the 11th and a Slight (2 out of 5) to Enhanced (3 out of 5) risk for severe weather on the 12th across the Metro. Below we will break down the threat times for each day and the possible hazards we might see.
Before I begin, the timing and overall threat for Wednesday and Thursday are fluid and could change over time, so please be sure to continue to check your local source for weather for the latest forecast. We will try to push further updates throughout the day Wednesday and Thursday in regard to the severe weather threat.
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - Severe Threat
The severe weather threat today (Wednesday, May 11th) will be the result of an area of low pressure that was located around New Mexico-Texas-Colorado Tuesday evening that is forecast to advance northward today. As this low pressure works north, a warm front will advance northward with it allowing for ample moisture to be advected across the region. This increase in moisture, combined with the warm temperatures, will allow for instability to build across the region to help support the threat of strong to severe storms.
The first round of strong to severe storms could come during the late morning hours into early afternoon as the warm front advance across the region from the south. Similar to the other day, elevated strong to severe storms could develop along that warm front with a threat for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The latest guidance has backed off slightly on the overall coverage, but we will continue to monitor these trends.
The second round of strong to severe storms will come late Wednesday evening from the southwest and as a cluster of storms works off to the northeast. The main threat time looks to be around 8 PM to 1 AM with some lingering showers and storms possible through about 3 AM across the metro. The main threat from these storms will again be damaging winds and large hail. While low, can’t rule out an isolated chance for a tornado.
Thursday, May 12, 2022 - Severe Threat
0000Z Namnst May 11, 2022
On the heels of the last system working out of the region, the latest model guidance is hinting at the first round of showers and storms developing during the early morning hours of Thursday along a warm front that will be advancing northward across the metro and setting the stage for our next threat of severe weather for Thursday. I am not sure if there will be enough instability or enough recovery within the environment to be able to support these storms developing that early just yet, but it will be a model trend we will have to keep an eye on. Similar to the storms late Wednesday morning that formed on the warm front, these should be elevated storms with a threat of large hail and locally damaging winds.
The second round of severe weather will come again late in the evening from the west-southwest likely in the form of a large squall line. The threat time for this line of storms will be around and after 10 PM through about Midnight. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this line, but pockets of large hail can’t be ruled out. Additionally, an isolated threat for a quick QLCS tornado in the line can’t be ruled out as well. Above you can see possible model output of what the storms could look like just before they reach the metro.
Be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts the next couple of days, and stay weather aware!
